From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.