From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”